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Generated by AI Agent [Coin World](https://www.ainvest.com/news/author/coin-world/)Reviewed by [AInvest News Editorial Team](https://www.ainvest.com/news/author/ainvest-news-editorial-team/) Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025 12:04 am ET1min read AI Podcast:Your News, Now Playing Loading Aime Summary OverviewThe 5 WsOpposite SidesInfobox \- U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw $1.865B and $1.357B outflows last week, reflecting investor caution amid market declines. \- Exchange balances dropped sharply as crypto holders shifted funds to long-term storage, signaling reduced trading activity. \- Bitcoin and Ethereum closed October 2025 with 4% and 7.15% declines, breaking the "Uptober" bullish trend for the first time in six years. \- Whale activity showed $260M BTC moved to cold storage, suggesting prioritization of security over liquidity amid volatility. \- Analysts debate whether outflows signal market bottoming or deeper correction, with uncertainty ahead of Fed rate decisions. The U.S. [Bitcoin](https://chart.ainvest.com/BTCUSDT/?exchange=BINANCE) and [Ethereum](https://chart.ainvest.com/ETHUSDT/?exchange=BINANCE) spot ETFs experienced significant outflows of $1.865 billion and $1.357 billion, respectively, last week, signaling a shift in investor behavior amid a broader market slump. On-chain analytics from Sentora, formerly IntoTheBlock, revealed that exchange balances for both cryptocurrencies have dropped sharply, with Bitcoin's outflows marking one of the largest weekly movements this quarter, according to a [TradingView article](https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:e1917bd54094b:0-billions-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum-leave-exchanges-is-selling-pressure-easing/) . The data suggests a potential shift in sentiment as investors move large amounts of crypto into long-term storage rather than trading on exchanges. The outflows come after a turbulent October for the crypto market, which ended with both Bitcoin and Ethereum posting negative monthly returns. Bitcoin closed October 2025 at 4% below its monthly open, breaking a six-year streak of bullish October performance known as the "Uptober" trend. Ethereum fared worse, closing 7.15% below its opening price, according to the same TradingView article. These declines followed a mid-month crash that rattled investor confidence, raising questions about whether the market's traditional seasonal strength has faded. Sentora's data highlights reduced activity on the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, with no clear signs of the bullish momentum that typically precedes year-end rallies. However, some analysts argue the outflows could reflect growing confidence among large holders, or "whales," who are prioritizing security over liquidity. Whale transaction tracker Lookonchain reported that two newly created wallets withdrew 2,000 BTC ($260 million) from Binance last week, a move interpreted as a strategic shift to cold storage, the TradingView article noted. This behavior aligns with broader patterns of institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals hedging against market volatility. The Ethereum outflows mirrored Bitcoin's trend, with $600 million leaving centralized exchanges. While Ethereum's decline is less dramatic than Bitcoin's, the altcoin's performance has lagged in recent months, partly due to regulatory uncertainties and competition from rival blockchains. The combined outflows for both assets suggest a broader reevaluation of risk in the crypto space, with investors favoring a wait-and-see approach ahead of potential macroeconomic catalysts, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the article observed. Market observers remain divided on the implications. Some view the outflows as a sign of "accumulation" by long-term holders, while others warn that reduced exchange activity could exacerbate liquidity challenges. "The data points to a lack of near-term bullish catalysts," said one analyst, noting that the market is still digesting October's losses. For now, the focus will be on whether these outflows signal a bottoming process or a deeper correction in crypto markets. 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This price correction, following a rare "red October" for Bitcoin, has triggered widespread liquidations and instilled a palpable sense of caution across the digital asset landscape. The immediate market reaction has been characterized by a "risk-off" sentiment, with investors grappling with a confluence of macroeconomic pressures and, increasingly, concerns stemming from the booming yet potentially overvalued Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade in traditional markets. This event carries substantial weight for the crypto ecosystem, as Bitcoin's role as the market's bellwether means its movements ripple across altcoins, DeFi protocols, and Web3 applications. The current slump challenges the historical "Moonvember" narrative of strong November returns and forces a re-evaluation of market resilience against external capital flows and broader tech sector anxieties. The intertwining of traditional market dynamics, particularly the AI investment frenzy, with crypto sentiment underscores the maturing yet still vulnerable nature of digital assets in a complex global financial environment. ## Market Impact and Price Action Bitcoin's price action in early November 2025 has been decisively bearish. After starting the month hovering near the $110,000 mark, BTC swiftly broke below the crucial $108,000 support level. The descent continued through November 3rd and 4th, with Bitcoin dipping under $107,500 and then $107,000, eventually touching lows in the $104,000 to $105,000 range. This represents a significant drop of over 2% in 24 hours and more than 6% over the week. From its October peak, Bitcoin has now fallen approximately 27%, marking the first time since 2018 that Bitcoin has not experienced an "Uptober" surge. The sell-off was exacerbated by substantial trading volume and liquidity changes. US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) experienced considerable outflows, with over $1.15 billion withdrawn in the previous week, including $186.5 million on November 3rd alone. This institutional selling contributed significantly to the downward pressure. The price drop also triggered massive liquidations of leveraged long positions, with over $400 million liquidated on November 3rd, impacting more than 162,000 traders. Analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin also fell below its 200-day moving average, a critical technical support level, signaling potential for further downside if buying pressure doesn't materialize. Key technical levels now being watched include the psychological $100,000 mark. A sustained break below $106,000 could expose targets around $100,600 and potentially $94,900. The cascading effect of Bitcoin's decline has been particularly harsh on altcoins, which have underperformed even more severely. Ethereum (ETH) has struggled below $3,700, and many top 50 altcoins, such as Solana (SOL-USD), plunged by 11% in 24 hours and 22% over the week. This widespread altcoin underperformance reflects an increased risk aversion across the market, pushing Bitcoin dominance up to 60.15% as investors flock to what is perceived as a relatively safer digital asset. While the current market conditions present challenges, some analysts draw parallels to previous corrections within larger bull cycles, viewing this as a "healthy reset" rather than an end to the broader uptrend. However, the unique element in this downturn is the pronounced influence of external factors, specifically the perceived capital rotation into AI-related equities and broader market anxieties about an "AI bubble," which differentiate it from purely crypto-specific market corrections. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, indicating no further interest rate cuts in December, further tightens financial conditions, making a swift rebound more challenging compared to periods of looser monetary policy. ## Community and Ecosystem Response The Bitcoin sell-off in early November 2025 has cast a pall of "fear" and "uncertainty" across the crypto community, as reflected by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeting into "Extreme Fear" territory. Discussions on platforms like Crypto Twitter and Reddit are "ablaze with FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)," with many traders expressing despair over "nonstop selling" and questioning the market's immediate recovery prospects. Users describe the market as "chaotic" and "frightening," acknowledging a shift from the days of easy 100x altcoin rallies to a more mature, volatile landscape. Despite the prevailing anxiety, a segment of investors views the dip as a potential buying opportunity, advocating for "buying the dip" while emphasizing stringent risk control and clear exit strategies. The influence of AI trade concerns, while not the sole driver, is increasingly acknowledged as a contributing factor to the cautious sentiment. The community observes a "painfully clear" correlation between crypto and tech stocks, particularly AI plays, suggesting that institutional investors active in both sectors are de-risking across the board. Reports of AI-based trading systems experiencing significant capital losses due to extreme market volatility in 2025 further underscore the challenges of integrating AI into unpredictable market conditions. Conversely, there's ongoing research and development into leveraging AI for sentiment analysis and market prediction, indicating a growing, albeit cautious, integration of AI into trading strategies. Crypto influencers and thought leaders are reacting with a mix of caution and long-term strategic perspectives. Anthony Pompliano, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, has linked the rising national debt to Bitcoin's potential future appreciation, framing it as an "opt-out" from a "broken system." While not directly addressing the sell-off, Elon Musk (TSLA-NASDAQ) recently highlighted AI and robotics as critical to addressing the U.S. debt crisis, indirectly pointing to AI's transformative (and potentially disruptive) power on global finance. Analysts are divided on the implications of "whale movements," with some interpreting large exchange deposits as a precursor to a "crypto winter," while others view them as strategic "shakeouts" before a larger rally. Notably, Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy (MSTR-NASDAQ) continued its accumulation strategy, purchasing 397 BTC for approximately $45.6 million between October 27 and November 2, signaling unwavering long-term conviction. The Bitcoin sell-off has had tangible, negative effects across related DeFi protocols, NFT projects, and Web3 applications. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols have seen a drop in Total Value Locked (TVL) as users withdrew liquidity or faced liquidation of collateralized positions. A major exploit on the Balancer protocol in early November 2025, resulting in an estimated $128.6 million theft, sent "shockwaves through the crypto community," renewing concerns about smart contract security and triggering a broader de-risking trend that highlighted the potential for "liquidity contagion." While less directly quantifiable, the general market decline and reduced risk appetite naturally dampen interest and trading volume in the more nascent and often illiquid NFT and broader Web3 sectors, as the "greater fool" era for speculative projects appears to be fading. ## What's Next for Crypto The crypto market faces a complex and volatile path forward in the wake of Bitcoin's November sell-off and the growing influence of AI trade concerns. In the **short term (late 2025 – early 2026)**, continued volatility is highly probable, with potential for further declines if Bitcoin fails to stabilize above key support levels, possibly retesting $100,000 or even $88,000. Altcoins are generally expected to underperform Bitcoin in this risk-off environment, although some, like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL-USD), have shown pockets of resilience. Macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate stance and a slower path to rate cuts (possibly delayed until mid-2026), will likely continue to suppress appetite for risk assets. There will also be increased scrutiny of AI trading systems, given reports of significant capital losses faced by AI-based models during recent volatility, raising concerns about overfitting, market manipulation, and security vulnerabilities. Looking at the **long term (2026 and beyond)**, the crypto market is poised for continued maturation and institutionalization. Forbes predicts significant institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin in 2026, potentially driving price appreciation and increasing liquidity. AI is expected to play a crucial role in refining risk modeling, optimizing market timing, and enhancing predictive accuracy in crypto trading, leading to more informed and less emotional decision-making. Stablecoins are anticipated to become ubiquitous, integrating into traditional financial transactions, and the complexity of Bitcoin-related financial products will increase. Blockchain innovation, particularly in Layer 2 scaling solutions for Bitcoin and Ethereum, alongside advancements in DeFi with AI-driven risk management, will enhance utility and efficiency. Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may evolve into more sustainable growth patterns, and its role as a macroeconomic hedge against rising global government debt and inflation could solidify. Several **potential catalysts or developments** could shape the market's trajectory. A sustained increase in global liquidity and earlier interest rate cuts by central banks, perhaps in mid-2026, would be a significant positive driver. Continued institutional adoption, exemplified by major financial players like Morgan Stanley (MS-NYSE) offering crypto trading and the rollout of new institutional crypto products in early 2026, could provide substantial capital inflows. Regulatory clarity for stablecoins and digital assets, along with evolving frameworks for AI-driven cryptocurrencies, will foster greater trust and stability. Technological advancements, including AI-powered crypto agents and protocols, and the growth of Real-World Assets (RWAs) tokenization, are also expected to be major trends. **Strategic considerations for projects and investors** are paramount. Crypto projects should prioritize robust security, clear utility, and regulatory compliance, thoughtfully integrating AI for enhanced security and analytics while ensuring transparency. Strong tokenomics, community building, and regulatory resilience are also crucial. For investors, risk management and diversification (including traditional assets like gold and silver) are key. A long-term perspective is vital, as short-term corrections can be severe. While utilizing AI for informed decisions is beneficial, investors must beware of AI-driven market manipulation, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and scams. Constant monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and focusing on projects with strong fundamentals will be essential for navigating this evolving landscape. Regarding **possible scenarios**, range-bound consolidation (Bitcoin trading between $104,000 and $116,000) is considered the most likely base case in the immediate future, allowing the market to digest macroeconomic concerns and regulatory developments. A moderate recovery towards $116,000-$120,000 is moderately likely if global macroeconomic conditions stabilize sooner. However, a deeper pullback or an extended bear market, potentially seeing Bitcoin retest $100,000 or even $88,000, carries a moderate to high likelihood, especially if global economic tensions worsen or a significant AI-driven trading system failure occurs. A sustained bull run is less likely in the immediate short term without strong catalysts to address current concerns, but its likelihood increases significantly for late 2026 and beyond, driven by institutional adoption and technological advancements, with some analysts predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 this cycle. ## Bottom Line Bitcoin's November 2025 sell-off, exacerbated by macroeconomic pressures and a discernible capital rotation towards the AI sector, underscores the increasing interconnectedness of the crypto market with broader financial ecosystems. Key takeaways for crypto investors and enthusiasts include the heightened volatility, the significant influence of institutional capital flows (both in and out of Bitcoin ETFs), and the emerging impact of AI trade concerns on overall market sentiment. This period highlights that while crypto offers unique value propositions, it is not immune to external market dynamics or the "risk-off" sentiment that can sweep through global financial markets. The long-term significance of this event lies not in a potential end to the bull cycle, but rather as a "healthy reset" and a catalyst for maturation. It forces a re-evaluation of strategies, emphasizing the importance of robust fundamentals, regulatory compliance, and thoughtful risk management for both projects and investors. The increasing integration of AI, while presenting challenges like potential market manipulation and security risks, also promises enhanced analytical capabilities and efficiency for the crypto market's future. Ultimately, this period of correction is a crucial test for crypto adoption. While short-term pain is evident, the underlying trends of institutional interest, continuous blockchain innovation, and the growing utility of digital assets remain strong. The market is evolving from purely speculative to a more sophisticated landscape where real utility, technological advancements (including AI integration), and sound regulatory frameworks will drive sustainable growth. Important dates, events, and metrics to monitor include upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates, sustained Bitcoin ETF flow data, key technical support levels for Bitcoin ($100,000, $88,000), and the ongoing development and implementation of AI regulatory frameworks globally. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. 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Search EN [Get started](https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?source=header_go_pro_button&feature=start_free_trial) # Crypto Bull Case Vs. Bear Case: These Forces Divide The Market 3 min read On November 2, 2025, crypto analyst Ignas \| DeFi distilled crypto’s current standoff into a clean ledger of pros and cons. **The Bearish Case For Crypto** The first bear pillar is the “AI bubble” overhang. Late-October headlines crystallized the debate as Nvidia briefly breached a $5 trillion market value, a milestone that sharpened concern that equity valuations tied to AI infrastructure spending may be running ahead of realized returns. Point two—“bullish news fail to pump”—was on display as “Uptober” ended with a whimper for the crypto market. Despite intermittent policy tailwinds and strong ETF inflows mid-month, both Bitcoin and Ethereum faded into month-end, and US spot ETF flows turned sharply negative over the final three trading days of October, a pattern consistent with risk aversion after the Oct. 10–11 shock. That shock, the “10/10 crash,” is the third bear lever. The two-day downdraft followed a sudden tariff escalation threat from the White House and produced one of the largest one-day liquidations in crypto history, spurring a rush for downside hedges and leaving the market probing for “dead entities” and hidden impairments. Cycle timing is Ignas’ fourth bear note. The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024 (block 840,000). Prior cycles do not map one-for-one, but the post-halving window is a pattern which gets a lot of attention at the moment. If the “cycle is not dead,” a Bitcoin top may already be in or is looming by the end of the year. “Old OG wallets selling” is the fifth bear claimant—and, for once, the chain tells a clear story. Since mid-October, long-term holders have materially increased net distribution, with Glassnode and other trackers flagging outflows on the order of tens of thousands of BTC, alongside headline-grabbing awakenings of Satoshi-era wallets. This does not prove panic, but it does inject supply at a delicate moment. Negative ETF flows round out the bear list. Farside’s fund-by-fund ledger shows pronounced outflows on October 29–31 across several US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with total daily net redemptions exceeding $470 million on October 29 and $488 million on October 30, before another hit on October 31 (191 million). While October closed with a inflow total of 3.424 billion, the message: the “fast money” cohort that chased the summer breakout was, at least temporarily, in retreat. Buffett’s caution is the macro bear exclamation point. Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter print revealed a record $381.7 billion cash pile and a twelfth straight quarter as a net seller of equities—a posture that telegraphs wariness about broad risk assets and liquidity conditions even as operating earnings rise. For crypto, this is not a direct flow, but it is a bellwether for global risk appetite. **The Bull Case For Crypto** The bull case, however, is not hand-waving. Start with “liquidity easing & interest cuts.” The ECB has already delivered substantial easing this year and paused; the Bank of England has begun cutting; and in the US, the Federal Reserve is also expected to close out the year with two more cuts while ending quantitative tightening. Ignas also says “no clear euphoria,” and—empirically—he’s right. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index spent the past week toggling between “Fear” and low “Neutral,” printing in the mid-30s to low-40s as of November 3. That’s a long way from the 80s–90s “extreme greed” that often sets up blow-off tops, and it supports the idea that positioning is not yet dangerously crowded. Institutional adoption remains the quiet compounding force in the bull ledger. With $30.2 billion year-to-date inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs are fueling most of the market strength. On policy, the US did more than chatter in 2025: the Senate passed, and President Trump signed, a bipartisan stablecoin law in July. A broader market-structure bill remains in play, but even the stablecoin win is non-trivial for on-chain liquidity and payments rails. Seasonality also favors patience. Since 2013, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter on average, with multiple cycles posting outsized November–December runs. Then there’s the stablecoin plumbing. Despite October’s chaos, aggregate stablecoin float sits around $307–308 billion and notched fresh all-time highs in mid-October—a sign that dry powder inside crypto’s own rails remains abundant and ready to mobilize if confidence stabilizes. As of today, DefiLlama pegs the total at roughly $307.6 billion. Finally, the US–China trade war has seen extremely positive progress. “This is the BIGGEST de-escalation yet. Under the new US-China trade deal, President Trump made a HUGE agreement with China: China will suspend ALL retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4th. And, China will suspend or remove ALL retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken since March 4th. This is not getting nearly enough attention,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote via X on Sunday. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.56 trillion. [Crypto](https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/news/) [NewsBTC](https://www.tradingview.com/news/providers/newsbtc) [Read more from NewsBTC](https://www.newsbtc.com) ## [More news from NewsBTC](https://www.tradingview.com/news-flow/?provider=newsbtc)
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Experts Predict The Timeline [Jake Simmons](https://www.newsbtc.com/www.newsbtc.com#author-box) Last Updated: November 6, 2025 2:00 am 4 mins read ### Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing ##### How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality ##### Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. The question dominating crypto desks this week is whether the cycle is intact, and when the bull run will return. Two widely followed macro commentators sketched the same causal chain from public-sector cash management to crypto asset beta, arguing that the current drawdown is a liquidity story first and a sentiment story second—and that its reversal hinges on the mechanics of the US Treasury General Account (TGA), Federal Reserve balance-sheet policy, and the timing of Washington’s reopening. ## Crypto Market Awaits US Government Shutdown Resolution Macro analyst @plur\_daddy on X [summarizes](https://x.com/plur_daddy/status/1985905172774629678) the current state bluntly: “We are seeing the contraction in liquidity flowing through into risk markets. Naturally it first showed up in BTC and market internals within equities, and now is finally hitting the broader indices.” He describes a textbook quality rotation underway—speculative thematics “such as quantum, nuclear, drones, and alt energy have been getting destroyed,” while flows consolidate into the megacap cohort and earnings-backed momentum, notably the AI capex complex. The underlying plumbing, in his reading, is starved of bank reserves as cash piles into the TGA and [quantitative tightening (QT) continues to shrink](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-bull-run-ahead-powell-telegraphed-end-qt/) the Fed’s balance sheet. “Monetary liquidity is drawing down as the TGA has become overfilled beyond the Treasury Dept’s $850bn cap, due to mechanical factors around higher issuance, timing of specific payments, and the government shutdown. There is a broader lack of bank reserves which continues to fall below the key $3trn threshold.” His conclusion is conditional but clear: these stresses “will precipitate actions to calm market plumbing but it will take time.” ## Related Reading [**Caution In The Crypto Market: Expert Warns Of Bearish Phase Unfolding This November**](https://www.newsbtc.com/crypto/caution-in-the-crypto-market-expert-warns-of-bearish-phase-unfolding-this-november/) 3 days ago On the dollar and cross-asset risk, he points to a crucial level: “The [DXY has been rallying](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/something-else-moving-bitcoin/) and is now approaching a key level at 101, which would be a logical point for it to top. I continue to believe the Trump administration wants a lower dollar.” The path to a crypto bottom, in his cadence, is explicitly tied to policy milestones: “The government reopening provides a clear catalyst to mark the bottom in liquidity conditions. Then, we get QT unwinding Dec 1 and then potentially more Fed actions (such as hints on bills repurchases) on Dec 10. The fiscal deficit will expand significantly starting Jan 1 as the OBBBA will fully kick in.” He characterizes Bitcoin’s behavior as resilient—“BTC has held in well despite [tremendous OG selling,](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-og-whale-moves-40000-btc-to-galaxy/) the aftermath of 10/10, and the factors above”—and describes his own playbook accordingly: “I currently have a sizable cash position and plan to aggressively add equities (especially the memory trade) and BTC once the government reopening looks imminent.” Hours later he added, “Bought some BTC. Seeing progress being made towards government reopening and signs that liquidity headwinds have peaked. Risk/reward here is strong with sentiment bombed out.” ## When The Liquidity Returns Raoul Pal, whose framework centers almost entirely on the [global liquidity cycle](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/liquidity-wave-crypto-bull-run-2026-raoul-pal/), pushes the same thesis to its logical macro conclusion. “If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that,” he [writes](https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1985853176357036256), before distilling the next year of market structure into a single constraint: “REMEMBER — THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.” In Pal’s telling, the shutdown’s effect is immediate and mechanical—“the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it. This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further”—and crypto, as the highest-beta liquidity asset, takes the brunt. The pivot, he argues, is likewise mechanical once fiscal operations restart: “As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands. The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow.” ## Related Reading [**Crypto Isn’t Topping Yet: Arthur Hayes Says Stealth QE Is Near**](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-isnt-topping-yet-arthur-hayes-stealth-qe/) 2 days ago He layers on prospective policy and regulatory catalysts—“SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion. The [CLARITY Act](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/the-next-chapter-for-crypto-legislative-clarity-institutional-support-set-stage-for-major-growth/) will get passed, giving the crypto regs so desperately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall. The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms”—and frames the global backdrop as additive, with China’s balance-sheet expansion and Japan’s policy mix supporting a broader risk rally. His tactical advice is to accept bull-market volatility without over-reacting: “Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules… and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith. BTFD if you can.” The punchline comes down to a single indicator within his dashboard: “td:dr — When this number goes up, all numbers go up.” GMI Global Liquidity Index \| Source: X @RaoulGMI The through-line across both perspectives is the primacy of dollar liquidity—specifically, the interaction of Treasury cash balances, Fed asset purchases or run-off, and the available stock of bank reserves after the Reverse Repo Program has largely normalized. When the [TGA rises without offset](https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/buy-bitcoin-before-jackson-hole-arthur-hayes/), it functions as a suction pump on aggregate reserves; when it falls as the Treasury spends, reserves rebuild, the marginal cost of leverage eases, and high-beta assets—crypto first—tend to outperform. Where does that leave the timing question implied by every red candle on crypto Twitter? Neither source offers a date, but both tether the next leg higher to the same sequence: a resolution in Washington that flips the TGA from hoarding to spending, visible easing in reserve scarcity as QT pauses or is unwound, a swerve lower in the dollar from resistance, and renewed fiscal impulse that re-steepens the growth impulse into 2026. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.38 trillion. Total crypto market cap, 1-week chart \| Source: [TOTAL on TradingView.com](https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4VHNKXS/) Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com [Tweet123](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=When%20Will%20The%20Crypto%20Market%20Surge%20Again%3F%20Experts%20Predict%20The%20Timeline%20via%20%40newsbtc&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbtc.com%2Fnews%2Fwhen-will-the-crypto-market-surge-again%2F) [Share196](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbtc.com%2Fnews%2Fwhen-will-the-crypto-market-surge-again%2F) [Share](https://telegram.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbtc.com%2Fnews%2Fwhen-will-the-crypto-market-surge-again%2F&text=When%20Will%20The%20Crypto%20Market%20Surge%20Again%3F%20Experts%20Predict%20The%20Timeline) [Send](https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=When%20Will%20The%20Crypto%20Market%20Surge%20Again%3F%20Experts%20Predict%20The%20Timeline%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbtc.com%2Fnews%2Fwhen-will-the-crypto-market-surge-again%2F) ## [Jake Simmons](https://www.newsbtc.com/author/marcusmisiak/) Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. Read more His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it's a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons. Close **Disclaimer:** The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk. ## Related News [**Ethereum Whales Accumulate Aggressively: 394K ETH Worth $1.37B In Just 3 Days** \ Ethereum is attempting to regain stability after the sharp selloff on Tuesday that sent its price plunging below $3,100. The...](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ethereum/ethereum-whales-accumulate-aggressively-394k-eth-worth-1-37b-in-just-3-days/) Sebastian Villafuerte 3 hours ago [**Crypto Crash Recovery: XRP Price Surges on Strong Fundamentals, Outshining Bitcoin and Ethereum** \ Following a stormy week that erased over $1 trillion in crypto market capitalization, signs of recovery are emerging, with the...](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ripple/crypto-crash-recovery-xrp-price-surges-on-strong-fundamentals-outshining-bitcoin-and-ethereum/) James Halver 4 hours ago [**Cardano (ADA) Rebounds From Lows, Eyes Key $0.72 Resistance Level** \ Cardano (ADA) is staging a cautious rebound after testing the critical $0.52–$0.57 support range, a zone that has historically triggered...](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/cardano/cardano-ada-rebounds-from-lows-eyes-key-0-72-resistance-level/) James Halver 6 hours ago [Load More](https://www.newsbtc.com/www.newsbtc.com) ### Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing ##### How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality ##### Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. 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## Table of Contents ## I. Crypto Market Overview ### Key Takeaways 1. #### Macro Environment The US government shutdown, now at 36 days, delays crypto legislation and heightens policy uncertainty, dampening risk appetite. Canada’s 2025 budget introduces stablecoin regulation, boosting market confidence and aligning with global standards. The EU debates expanding ESMA’s powers over crypto, raising concerns about innovation versus regulatory consistency. 2. #### Crypto Market The crypto market rebounded in the past 12 hours, led by Bitcoin up 3.2% to $102,921 and Ethereum up 5.7% to $3,378, driven by renewed risk appetite. Altcoins showed mixed performance, with Quant (+18.9%), Internet Computer (+18.1%), and Decred (+10.4%) outperforming on strong ecosystem activity and investor rotation. Solana also gained 6%. 3. #### Today's Outlook The [DYDX](https://phemex.com/price/dydx-chain) network upgrade is scheduled for today at block 62,250,000 around 18:06 UTC, potentially impacting DEX trading and liquidity. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, which could influence GBP volatility and global risk sentiment, indirectly affecting crypto market flows. Fear and Greed Index 76.00%Annual Percentile 20Fear Total Crypto Market Cap $3.45T 3.48% Total Market Trading Volume $192.97B 32.99% Altcoin Season Index 8.33% Quarterly Percentile 24/ 100 Total Futures Market Open Interest 3.36B 0.95% Futures 840.92B 4.71% Perpetuals ## II. Industry Updates ### Macro-economic Policies 1. #### The US government shutdown has reached a record 36 days, causing delays in the crypto market structure bill and increasing policy uncertainty, which is dampening risk appetite and reducing liquidity in the crypto market. 2. #### The US and China have both announced tariff adjustments, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions. This move is expected to support global risk sentiment and may provide indirect support for commodity-linked cryptocurrencies and DeFi protocols. 3. #### World Economic Forum Chairman Borg Brende has warned of potential bubbles in cryptocurrencies, AI, and global debt, highlighting elevated government debt as a macro risk. This increases volatility and risk-off sentiment in crypto markets. ### Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends 1. #### Canada has officially announced plans to regulate fiat-backed stablecoins in its 2025 federal budget, requiring issuers to maintain full reserves and implement risk management, which is expected to boost market confidence and align with global standards. 2. #### The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now at a record 36 days, is likely to delay the passage of the crucial crypto market structure bill until 2026, increasing regulatory uncertainty and potentially dampening investor sentiment. 3. #### Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission has introduced new rules allowing licensed crypto exchanges to share global order books with overseas affiliates, aiming to enhance liquidity and institutional participation in the region's digital asset market. 4. #### The European Commission is preparing a draft proposal to expand the European Securities and Markets Authority's powers over crypto firms, sparking debate over the balance between regulatory consistency and innovation in the EU's digital asset sector. ### Trending Tokens 1. #### Quant ( [QNT](https://phemex.com/price/qnt)): Quant surged 19% in the past 24 hours, reaching $84.52 with $55.6M volume, driven by strong market demand and renewed interest in interoperability protocols. 2. #### Decred ( [DCR](https://phemex.com/price/decred)): Decred jumped 14.8% to $41.22, with $66.1M in trading volume, as investors rotated into hybrid PoW/PoS projects amid increased focus on decentralized governance. 3. #### Internet Computer ( [ICP](https://phemex.com/price/icp)): Internet Computer rallied 18% to $5.84, with $691M in 24h volume, fueled by renewed ecosystem activity and developer engagement on decentralized web infrastructure. ### Smart Money Movements 1. #### A Bitcoin whale transferred 1,104 [BTC](https://phemex.com/price/bitcoin) worth $114 million between unknown wallets shortly after Trump's economic speech announcement, indicating strategic positioning amid market volatility. 2. #### Bitmine acquired 20,205 [ETH](https://phemex.com/price/ethereum) valued at $69.89 million from Coinbase and FalconX, while an unidentified entity accumulated 13,281 [ETH](https://phemex.com/price/ethereum) worth $45.58 million, signaling significant Ethereum accumulation. 3. #### Justin Sun staked 45,000 [ETH](https://phemex.com/price/ethereum), valued at $154.5 million, via Lido, increasing his total Ethereum holdings to $534 million and surpassing his [TRX](https://phemex.com/price/tron) holdings. 4. #### Remixpoint, a Japanese listed company, expanded its Bitcoin holdings by 29.46 [BTC](https://phemex.com/price/bitcoin), bringing its total to 1,411.29 [BTC](https://phemex.com/price/bitcoin), as reported on November 5th. 5. #### MetaPlanet secured a $100 million loan using its Bitcoin holdings as collateral on October 31, allocating funds for additional Bitcoin purchases, revenue operations, and share buybacks. ### Events to Watch #### Nov 6 (Thu) dYdX Network Upgrade at block 62250000 around 18:06 UTC; Bank of England announces interest rate decision, impacting GBP and global markets. #### Nov 7 (Fri) Amnis Finance will conduct a $2 million retroactive airdrop; US Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls for October to be released, key for market sentiment. ## III. Phemex Market Focus ### New Listings 1. #### [Nov 05: (TRUST/USDT)](https://phemex.com/trade/TRUST-USDT) New spot trading pair TRUST/USDT listed, built by crypto industry veterans for decentralized identity. 2. #### [Nov 05: (TRUSTUSDT)](https://phemex.com/futures/TRUSTUSDT) New futures trading pair TRUSTUSDT listed, linear USDT-margined with hedge mode support. 3. #### [Nov 05: (MMT/USDT)](https://phemex.com/trade/MMT-USDT) New spot trading pair MMT/USDT listed, Momentum is a global financial operating system for the tokenized future. 4. #### [Nov 05: (KITE/USDT)](https://phemex.com/trade/KITE-USDT) New spot trading pair KITE/USDT listed, building the first AI payment blockchain. 5. #### [Nov 05: (CCUSDT)](https://phemex.com/futures/CCUSDT) New pre-market futures trading pair CCUSDT listed, linear USDT-margined with hedge mode support. ### Phemex Promotions 1. #### [Time to make your invites COUNT!](https://phemex.com/promo/activity/666?) 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[Skip Navigation](https://www.cnbc.com/www.cnbc.com#MainContent) [Markets](https://www.cnbc.com/markets/) [Business](https://www.cnbc.com/business/) [Investing](https://www.cnbc.com/investing/) [Tech](https://www.cnbc.com/technology/) [Politics](https://www.cnbc.com/politics/) [Video](https://www.cnbc.com/tv/) [Watchlist](https://www.cnbc.com/watchlist/) [Investing Club](https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/subscribe?__source=investingclub|globalnav|join&tpcc=investingclub|globalnav|join) [PRO](https://www.cnbc.com/application/pro?__source=pro|globalnav|join&tpcc=pro|globalnav|join) [Livestream](https://www.cnbc.com/live-tv/) Menu Key Points - U.S. President Donald Trump said he wants to keep America “number one” in cryptocurrencies, framing digital assets as part of the broader U.S.–China tech rivalry. - While Beijing restricts the virtual assets, Hong Kong has emerged as a hub for crypto investors and developers. - The ultimate tension remains whether the U.S. dollar or the Chinese yuan will be used more in the digital age. Bitcoin, ethereum and the stablecoin USDT are promoted at a cryptocurrency store in Hong Kong on July 29, 2025. Peter Parks \| Afp \| Getty Images _This report is from this week's CNBC's The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what's driving the world's second-largest economy. You can subscribe_ [_here._](https://www.cnbc.com/lander?id=chinaconnection-newsletter) ## The big story America's AI competition with China is coming for cryptocurrencies. At least that's what U.S. President [Donald Trump](https://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/) suggested following his [meeting last Thursday](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/trump-and-xi-land-busan-meeting-trade-and-tariffs-.html) with Chinese President [Xi Jinping](https://www.cnbc.com/xi-jinping/) — a trade [negotiation](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/trump-cuts-fentanyl-tariffs-on-china-to-10percent-says-us-reached-rare-earths-deal-.html) closely watched around the world. "I wanna make [crypto great for America](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/read-full-transcript-norah-odonnell-60-minutes-interview-with-president-trump/)," Trump [told CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/read-full-transcript-norah-odonnell-60-minutes-interview-with-president-trump/). "The same way we're number one with AI, we're number one with crypto. And I wanna keep it that way." "I don't want China or anybody else to take it away," he said. Whether Trump genuinely views Beijing as a serious threat or not, his remarks come as China sends new signals on its crypto ambitions. Beijing has [banned domestic crypto transactions](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/china-bans-financial-payment-institutions-from-cryptocurrency-business.html) since 2021, while Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China, has maintained a managed system that encourages the development of digital assets. On Monday, Hong Kong [eased its restrictions](https://apps.sfc.hk/edistributionWeb/gateway/EN/news-and-announcements/news/doc?refNo=25PR182) further — allowing its [licensed virtual asset trading platforms](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/hong-kong-passes-stablecoin-bill-as-more-governments-recognize-the-digital-assets-.html) to connect directly with global crypto exchanges and list new digital assets and Hong Kong-regulated stablecoins, forgoing the need for a 12-month track record. The announcement coincided with Hong Kong's state-organized 10th FinTech Week, which opened just as a [political and business spectacle in South Korea](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/chinas-xi-urges-asian-nations-to-keep-supply-chains-stable-work-together-during-turbulent-times.html) began to fade. ## TradFi meets DeFi in Hong Kong Hong Kong has been quick to follow Washington's lead, allowing [exchange-traded funds tracking spot](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/asias-first-spot-bitcoin-and-ether-etfs-debut-in-hong-kong.html) last year, and went a step further by approving spot ether ETFs to trade nearly three months [before the U.S.](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/ether-etfs-first-day-of-trading.html) did. Bitcoin, often likened to digital gold, remains the most recognized cryptocurrency. [Ether, another major digital currency](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/bitcoin-ether-litecoin-ripple-differences-between-cryptocurrencies.html) on the Ethereum network, is used both for payments and as "gas" to pay for computation and run smart contracts on decentralized applications. Ethereum Foundation's co-executive director Tomasz K. Stańczak, speaking at a digital assets forum Sunday on the sidelines of Hong Kong's FinTech week, noted that over [60% of stablecoins](https://x.com/snzholding/status/1985637460521681038?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet)—cryptocurrencies pegged to government-issued currencies— are deployed on the Ethereum network. In the audience of about 300 people, nearly 70% came from traditional finance, according to Gavin Wang, chief investment officer at SNZ Holdings, a digital assets investment firm that helped organize the forum. That contrasts with how such events used to attract more software developers, said Wang, who previously worked at UBS. The forum also announced an "Ethereum Hong Kong Hub," a co-working space to incubate related startups, reflecting the city's growing influence as Asia's crypto gateway. Even major industry players are taking notice. Consensus, one of the world's biggest crypto conferences in North America, expanded to Hong Kong for the first time this year, and plans to return in 2026. ## Crypto's growing pains Still, digital assets remain relatively nascent relative to traditional markets. The total value of cryptocurrencies has yet to exceed [$4.5 trillion](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), global stock markets are still far larger at [$101.52 trillion](https://www.world-exchanges.org/). Bitcoin fell sharply in the last few weeks following concerns about escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and frothy AI stock valuations, [briefly dipping below $100,000](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/bitcoins-november-sell-off-worsens-as-investors-take-risk-off-on-worries-about-the-ai-trade-.html) for the first time since late June. "My assumption is it's more or less the same group of \[investors\] switching around AI and crypto," said Jason Huang, founding partner of NextGen Digital Venture (NDV), an Asia-based fund invests in cryptocurrencies and related stocks. "Once AI cools down a bit, I think crypto will come back." Huang's $100 million fund surged by 375.5% in the two years through March 2025 — outperforming bitcoin by more than 60% during that period — and he's now launching a second fund. He said many of his investors are wealthy Chinese, adding that subscriptions have increased despite the recent selloff. According to Huang, his fund was down only in the single digits last month, despite the , which he said was the single largest liquidation day for crypto, even surpassing the infamous FTX exchange collapse. ## USD vs. Chinese yuan The next phase of competition may not be about tokens themselves, but about control. Governments are increasingly eager to control the market through stablecoins backed by their own fiat currencies. Much of the recent excitement over digital assets in Hong Kong stems from its push into stablecoins this year, following the U.S. Genius Act, which aims to support dollar-pegged stablecoins. It's taking the U.S. dollar competition with the Chinese yuan into the digital era. "Both are striving to expand their own currency usage to build up their respective global user ecosystem," said Winston Ma, adjunct professor of law at the New York University School of Law. But it won't be easy, he pointed out, as Beijing has yet to convince individuals to adopt the digital yuan at scale, which is China's central bank–issued digital currency designed to replace some cash transactions while allowing tighter oversight of its financial system. China has sought to promote a digital version of its yuan currency in recent years but it has yet to break into the mainstream. "U.S. dollar stablecoins may experience the same when they start to emerge," Ma said. The U.S. dollar accounted for just under half of global payments by value in September, tracked by international financial messaging service SWIFT, while the Chinese yuan climbed one spot into fifth place with a [3.17% share](https://www.swift.com/products/renminbi-tracker/document-centre). Last week, China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng promoted the [digital yuan](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/chinas-digital-yuan-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work.html), while taking a more conservative view of stablecoins than many expected, reaffirming Beijing's long-standing restrictions on [speculative trading in virtual currencies](http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5880408/index.html). Still, bitcoin blockchain data showed [China remains a major player](https://hashrateindex.com/blog/global-hashrate-heatmap-update-q4-2025/), ranking third in global bitcoin mining activity — behind the U.S. and Russia. That's not a statistic Trump is likely to overlook. Forbes estimates the U.S. president himself holds roughly $870 million worth of bitcoin—one of the world's [largest personal stashes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/10/10/trump-is-now-one-of-americas-biggest-bitcoin-investors/). _— CNBC's Anniek Bao contributed to this report._ ## Top TV picks on CNBC watch now VIDEO7:1307:13 Trump and Xi committed to making relationship work: Former US Commerce Secretary [The China Connection](https://www.cnbc.com/the-china-connection/) Carlos Gutierrez, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, said both Washington and Beijing got what they wanted out of Trump and Xi's meeting in South Korea. He added that markets will likely welcome signs that the two countries are giving each other reasons to strengthen ties. watch now VIDEO4:1804:18 US and Korea struck a win-win trade deal: AMCHAM Korea Chairman [The China Connection](https://www.cnbc.com/the-china-connection/) James Kim, chairman and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea, said the relationship between the United States and China is especially important for South Korea. He added that he was pleased with the outcome of the trade talks between Washington and Seoul. watch now VIDEO4:4004:40 China's Nvidia problem: Can Chinese chipmakers replace Blackwell? [The China Connection](https://www.cnbc.com/the-china-connection/) Xiaomeng Lu, director of geo-technology at Eurasia Group, said Nvidia has likely made more progress with the U.S. government than with China amid ongoing tensions over semiconductor export controls. ## Need to know **U.S.-China reach one-year trade truce.** If the latest [U.S.-China trade deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/trump-cuts-fentanyl-tariffs-on-china-to-10percent-says-us-reached-rare-earths-deal-.html) is finalized, tariffs are expected to stay lower, and large-scale disruptions to rare earths trade are unlikely over the next 12 months. **Nvidia in China.** As the chipmaker stays largely locked out of a $50 billion market, CEO Jensen Huang on Friday acknowledged that ["China doesn't want H20 or any American chips."](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/nvidias-huang-doesnt-buy-the-national-security-concerns-over-selling-chips-to-china.html) **China's factory activity slumps.** The official purchasing managers' index and its private sector counterpart both showed a [drop in manufacturing in October](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/china-factory-activity-october-pmi-ratingdog-private-survey-shows.html) from September amid U.S. trade tensions. ## Quote of the week We are still at a very early stage \[of asset allocation into crypto\], probably 7.5% crypto adoption globally. So going forward, I still envisage quite a lot of demand coming. — [_Richard Teng, Binance CEO_](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/11/03/binance-ceo-on-crypto-mainstream-regulations-and-founders-pardon.html) ## In the markets Chinese markets rose 0.46%, defying a broader regional decline as investors pulled back from AI-related stocks. The Hang Seng Index was little changed, while the CSI 300 has gained nearly 18% so far this year. The offshore Chinese yuan last traded at 7.1307 against the dollar. _— Lee Ying Shan_ Stock chart icon The performance of the Shanghai Composite over the past year. ## Coming up Nov. 5 - 10: China International Import Expo in Shanghai Nov. 6 - 9: China's "Six Little Dragons" [AI startups to hold a roundtable](http://www.news.cn/20251017/196cf4a0980b48d590c82fd356f3d41d/c.html) during the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen Nov. 7: Exports, Imports for October Nov. 9: CPI, PPI for October [Nvidia's Jensen Huang softens his ‘China will win the AI race’ remark to FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/jensen-huang-says-china-will-win-the-ai-race-before-clarifying-in-a-statement-nvidia-trump-xi.html) [Dylan Butts](https://www.cnbc.com/dylan-butts/)5 hours ago [watch now\ \ watch now\ \ VIDEO06:27](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/11/06/hsbc-ceo-most-of-the-trade-uncertainty-is-behind-us.html) [HSBC CEO: 'Asia is buying Asia', as most of the trade uncertainty is behind us](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/11/06/hsbc-ceo-most-of-the-trade-uncertainty-is-behind-us.html) [Asia's private equity funds turn bullish on China, betting on Beijing's tech-focused economic plan](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/asias-private-equity-funds-china-ai-tech-economic-plan-.html) [Anniek Bao](https://www.cnbc.com/anniek-bao/) [Read More](https://www.cnbc.com/the-china-connection/)
[**Solmate Infrastructure Launches UAE Based Solana Validator and Expands Into RPC** \ \ Michael Ross\ \ November 6, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/solmate-infrastructure-launches-uae-based-solana-validator-and-expands-into-rpc) [**BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Launches in Australia : Key ETF Details** \ \ Michael Ross\ \ November 5, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-launches-in-australia-key-etf-details) [**Bitcoin ETF Flows Today (4 Nov 2025): Institutions Trim Positions as Bitcoin Drops Below $100K** \ \ Anvika Reddy\ \ November 5, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/bitcoin-etf-flows-today-4-nov-2025-institutions-trim-positions-as-bitcoin-drops-below-100k) [**MEXC Proof of Reserves: Comprehensive Analysis of Reserve Ratios and Solvency Position** \ \ Anvika Reddy\ \ November 3, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/mexc-proof-of-reserves-comprehensive-analysis-of-reserve-ratios-and-solvency-position) [**Balancer Hack: $128.64M Stolen in Multi-Chain DeFi Attack** \ \ Sai Nikhil\ \ November 3, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/balancer-hack-12864m-stolen-in-multi-chain-defi-attack) [**Solana ETF Smashes Expectations: A $200M Debut and What Comes Next** \ \ Michael Ross\ \ November 3, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/solana-etf-smashes-expectations-a-200m-debut-and-what-comes-next) [**CZ's $2M ASTER Bet Triggers 30% Rally: Sustainable Boom or Sentiment Spike?** \ \ Anvika Reddy\ \ November 3, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/czs-2m-aster-bet-triggers-30-rally-sustainable-boom-or-sentiment-spike) [**Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Prediction November 2025: $50 Breakout Incoming?** \ \ Anvika Reddy\ \ October 29, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/hyperliquid-hype-price-prediction-november-2025-50-breakout-incoming) [**Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL) Launches With $69M, First US SOL ETF** \ \ Sai Nikhil\ \ October 29, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/bitwise-solana-etf-bsol-launches-with-69m-first-us-sol-etf) [**Solana ETF News: Analysing the Bitwise BSOL Approval** \ \ Sai Nikhil\ \ October 28, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/solana-etf-news-analysing-the-bitwise-bsol-approval) [**Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Saylor’s 390 BTC Purchase Push it to $150K?** \ \ Anvika Reddy\ \ October 27, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-will-saylors-390-btc-purchase-push-it-to-150k) [**JPMorgan to Accept Bitcoin & Ethereum as Loan Collateral** \ \ Michael Ross\ \ October 24, 2025](https://cryptocoverage.org/news/jpmorgan-to-accept-bitcoin--ethereum-as-loan-collateral)
Email Quick Login Verification Code Get Verification Code Join Forgot Password Verification Code Login / Register # 3-Month 20x Surge: Does ZEC's 'Bitcoin Silver' Narrative Hold Up? [律动小工](https://m.theblockbeats.info/newsauthor/221) 2025-11-07 11:57 Read this article in 26 Minutes You bought ZEC, I bought ETH, we both have a bright future The cypherpunk's pursuit of privacy can be traced back to the birth of Bitcoin 16 years ago, embedding a privacy mechanism in a fully transparent ledger, thus opening up the entire cryptocurrency world. And to this day, privacy in the crypto field remains a significant topic. If you bought ZEC at the first shout-out by this round's coin circle "version child" Mert and held it until now, in less than 3 months, you would achieve a rare 20x gain among altcoins this year. When ZEC surged from $238 to $580 within 40 days, achieving a 20x increase in three months and hitting a seven-year high, the crypto market realized that a long-forgotten sector was making a strong comeback. The entire privacy coin sector surged by about 80% in the past 7 days, with established projects like DASH, DCR, ZEN seeing gains of over 100%. What is even more surprising is the shift in market sentiment. Just a few months ago, privacy coins were still labeled as "regulatory orphans," with Kraken delisting XMR and the EU proposing a 2027 ban, making investors stay away. But now, "privacy is a necessity, not a feature" has become a high-frequency topic on Twitter, Arthur Hayes publicly setting a "ZEC target of $10,000," and Vitalik endorsing ZKSync multiple times. What is the real driving force behind this rally? Is it the demand for hedging under regulatory pressure, or pure financial speculation? More importantly, how long can this wave of enthusiasm last? # Who is Leading the Surge? ZEC is undoubtedly the absolute leader of this round's rally. Starting from $237.84 on October 23 to reaching $532.06 on November 7, a 120% increase in 40 days, with a staggering 700% YTD gain. This price not only set a new high since 2018 but also brought ZEC back into the mainstream investors' view. Looking back at several key points in time, you can clearly see ZEC's upward trajectory: October 1: Grayscale announced the reopening of the ZEC Trust (ZCSH) and provided fee reductions and staking functionality, causing a 22% surge in ZEC on that day; October 24: A technical formation of a "flag pattern breakout" occurred, with on-chain indicators OBV and CMF rising simultaneously, leading to a 40% increase within 4 days; November 1: The Futures Open Interest (OI) first broke through $770 million, with Arthur Hayes once again calling for a "target of $10,000," triggering a short squeeze and a 15% intraday gain; November 7: The price broke through $532, with a 24-hour spot trading volume of $17.5 billion, 1.4 times the monthly average level; Of more interest is the improvement in fundamentals: ZEC's shielded pool balance first broke through 5 million coins, accounting for approximately 30% of the circulation, equivalent to $25 billion in funds opting for completely anonymous storage. Daily transaction volume has increased from 10,000 to 12,600 transactions, with shielded transactions accounting for less than 10% jumping to 25-30%. These data indicate that ZEC's rise is not purely speculative but is supported by real privacy needs. ZEC's strong performance ignited the entire privacy sector, with a group of long-forgotten old projects also experiencing a breakout: Behind this collective uptrend are two key drivers: First is the centralized listing on exchanges. From November 2-6, Binance, OKX, and Bitget successively launched perpetual contracts or new spot trading pairs for DASH, ZEN, SCRT, bringing not only improved liquidity but also the magnifying effect of high-leverage derivatives. Taking DASH as an example, the 24-hour spot plus contract trading volume broke through $1.2 billion, a 2.8-fold increase compared to the previous period. The second is substantive progress in technology or protocols. DASH became the native asset of the Maya Protocol on November 2, achieving cross-chain anonymous exchange functionality; ZEN completed its migration to Base L2, doubling the efficiency of zk-SNARK; SCRT and ROSE benefited from the new narrative of privacy computation combined with AI. In addition, the privacy sector has a special player, ZKsync (ZK). Technologically, ZK is Ethereum's Layer-2 scaling solution, with transactions on the main chain still transparent; but because of its optional ZK privacy feature and Prividium Enterprise Private Chain, mainstream platforms such as CoinGecko and Santiment categorize it under the privacy sector. Over the past 7 days, ZK has surged over 130%, becoming one of the projects with the largest gains in the privacy sector. This performance is backed by a triple catalyst: Performance leap of the Atlas upgrade: The Atlas upgrade, fully activated on November 1, increased the theoretical TPS from 2,000 to 15,000-30,000. ZK's finality was reduced from 3 hours to 1 second, and the transaction fee per transaction dropped from over $0.0013 to below $0.0001. Previously, ZK's major limitation was its high fee cost compared to OP, but after the Atlas upgrade, this issue has been significantly improved. Tokenomics model reconfiguration: The "ZKnomics Part I" proposal, announced on November 4, for the first time will flow network transaction fees and enterprise authorization fees back to the Treasury for "buyback-burn+staking rewards," transforming ZK from a pure governance token to a cash flow asset. The estimated staking APY can reach 8-12%. Vitalik's public endorsement: On November 1, Vitalik tweeted twice stating that ZKsync is "underrated," resulting in a 30x increase in ZK's trading volume that day. The endorsement of a key figure played a crucial catalyst role in market sentiment. # What are the reasons behind the rise of the privacy narrative? ## Regulatory "Safe Haven Premium" At first glance, regulatory tightening should suppress privacy coins, but in reality, it is the opposite. It is precisely because of high regulatory pressure that the demand for privacy is being ignited. Regulatory tightening at the policy level is accelerating. The draft of the EU's Anti-Money Laundering Regulation clearly proposes to completely restrict privacy coins' transactions within the EU by 2027; the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is also planning to intensify scrutiny of "high-risk self-hosted wallets." With Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs coming into regulatory view, all on-chain transactions face stricter tracking. As compliant assets become more transparent, privacy assets become scarcer. Therefore, Western media has even named this round of the rally — the "Crypto Anti-Surveillance Wave." ZEC and XMR are redefined as the "last line of on-chain anonymity." The consensus on social media is more direct: "Privacy is not a feature but a fundamental right." On-chain data confirms the growth in real demand. ZEC shielded pool balance increased from 4 million coins to 4.9 million coins in 40 days, a 25% increase; the proportion of shielded transactions surged from less than 10% to 25-30%, indicating that more and more users are opting for fully anonymous transaction methods. The more users, the stronger the privacy guarantee, and the more evident the network effect. The increase in on-chain activity of ZEC, DASH, and ROSE is also significant evidence. ZEC's daily transaction volume has grown from around 10,000 transactions on October 1 to 12,600 transactions on November 7, a 26% increase. DASH's 30-day average on-chain transactions have increased by 15%, rising from around 1,300 transactions to 1,500 transactions; ROSE has seen a staggering 200% surge, climbing from around 3,300 transactions to 10,000 transactions. The TVL inflow of ZK is also worth noting. Following the Atlas upgrade activation, the TVL of the ZKsync Era has rebounded from $5 billion to $6 billion, a 20% increase. This growth occurred against the backdrop of an overall decline in TVL across the Layer-2 ecosystem. Transaction platform inflow data also reflects the trend of chip locking. ZEC's transaction platform net inflow in a 48-hour period plummeted from $41.8 million to $3.66 million, a 91% decrease. This indicates that holders are not engaging in short-term speculation but are optimistic about the long-term growth of privacy needs. ## ZEC's Grayscale Effect The return of institutional funds is one of the most important catalysts for this round of the market. Grayscale's relaunch of the Grayscale ZEC Trust was the most significant event in October. On October 1, Grayscale announced the reopening of new subscriptions for the ZCSH Trust, offering two major upgrades: waiving the management fee and introducing staking capabilities, providing a 4-5% annualized return. This one-two punch significantly improved the risk-return ratio. Why does the term "Grayscale" carry such weight? Because over the past decade, Grayscale has been almost the sole compliant bridge and price oracle for traditional institutional crypto asset allocation. Its trust products issued in the U.S. have long provided exposure to crypto assets for pension funds, family offices, and hedge funds, making it a leading indicator of institutional entry scale and preference changes. Since launching its first Bitcoin Trust in 2013, Grayscale has successively expanded into over a dozen single-asset trusts such as ETH, SOL, LTC, BCH, ETC, FIL, XLM, among others. Many of these assets have experienced the typical "Grayscale Effect"—where capital inflows drive price increases, premiums widen, and a consensus narrative is formed. The ZEC Trust (ZCSH) was established as early as 2017 and experienced a phase of skyrocketing premiums during the 2020-2021 bull market, becoming a primary target for institutional allocation in the privacy sector. However, following increased self-regulation and privacy coins facing compliance pressure, ZCSH paused subscriptions in 2022 and entered a quiet period in 2023. This reboot signifies Grayscale re-endorsing privacy assets, with its signaling significance even greater than the funds themselves. Data shows that ZCSH's AUM (Assets Under Management) surged by 228% in one month, rising from around $42 million to $136 million, representing approximately 1.9% of ZEC's circulating supply. For an asset with daily trading volumes in the billions of dollars, the fact that nearly 2% of the chips are locked up long-term in the trust has a significant effect on the supply side. A deeper logic lies in the ETF's circuitous effect. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum physically settled ETFs brought these assets into a strict regulatory framework, where every transaction is traceable. Some institutions and high-net-worth individuals, to avoid this transparency, began redirecting funds to anonymous assets. Grayscale's ZEC Trust conveniently offers a compliant channel — providing exposure to privacy coins while enabling operations through traditional financial channels. ## The Coordinated Position of CoinCircle's Version Sons Social media has played an amplifier role in this round of the market. During ZEC's uptrend, Mert, widely regarded as the version son of the Solana ecosystem in this round, undoubtedly played one of the most crucial voices behind the price. As the CEO of Helius, a core infrastructure of Solana, and one of the most recognized voices in the Solana ecosystem, Mert began heavily recommending ZEC when it was at $30, and almost daily continued to make calls on Twitter, live, and podcasts. This led to a significant overlap between the ZEC and Solana communities. Even more catalytic was Arthur Hayes' consecutive entry calls. The co-founder of BitMEX was one of the "most adept at forecasting cycle inflection points" in the last bull market. He first threw out the "ZEC target $1,000" on October 31, which was already astonishing; then on November 1, he directly doubled down to "target $10,000" and dubbed ZEC the "safe-haven asset of the crypto market." This tweet's interactions exceeded 200,000 in a single day, causing ZEC's trading volume to soar and its price to spike 15% intraday. Subsequently, Naval Ravikant's statement elevated ZEC's narrative from being a "speculative asset" to a "battle of values and technological direction." Naval redefined the foundational value of privacy assets with the statement "Privacy is a basic right, not a tool for crime." As the self-proclaimed "ZK enthusiast," Vitalik's consecutive tweets on November 1st referred to ZKsync as "underrated," directly causing a 30x surge in ZK-related asset trading volume, igniting the ZK track, and making "ZK Season is here" a hot topic. # Is ZEC Really the "Silver to Bitcoin"? During ZEC's price surge, the community also proposed a narrative of "Bitcoin's Silver." Does this positioning really hold water? Optimists believe that ZEC's rise is not solely due to the privacy narrative. One key piece of evidence is the market performance divergence: if ZEC's surge was solely due to privacy demand, then RAIL, as a core privacy project in the EVM ecosystem, should have seen simultaneous benefits. RAIL is a privacy protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem that can anonymize ETH, ERC-20 tokens, and NFTs. More importantly, Vitalik himself not only used RAIL to anonymize millions of dollars' worth of ETH but also natively integrated RAIL into his new project Kohaku (a wallet SDK), with MetaMask and OKX Wallet as partners. From a fundamental perspective, RAIL charges a 0.25% fee on funds entering and exiting privacy pools, and 77% of the token supply is staked, locked for 30 days, resulting in a much lower actual circulation supply than surface data shows. This is a project with a clear business model and tokenomics, rather than just a speculative asset. However, in the latter half of October, the market witnessed a crucial signal: ZEC continued its meteoric rise, while RAIL began to stagnate. This might indicate that ZEC's surge may be not only about privacy but about the market re-evaluating its monetary properties and value storage function. In other words, privacy may be just a catalyst, and the real narrative is whether "ZEC can become the silver to Bitcoin" — a narrative with a higher ceiling. The optimists believe that ZEC has all the elements to become the "silver to Bitcoin's gold." From a technical perspective, ZEC uses a Proof of Work (POW) mechanism, similar to Bitcoin, to secure the network through hashrate competition, which aligns more with the principle of "monetary neutrality" than Proof of Stake (POS)—no one can control the network through coin holdings. ZEC has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, and this hard cap supply mechanism is a core feature of a store of value asset, mitigating the risk of inflation dilution. More importantly, ZEC's privacy feature is not a burden but an advantage: in a world of increasing regulation and fully transparent on-chain transactions, privacy is shifting from an "optional feature" to a "monetary necessity." When every Bitcoin transaction can be traced, and every address can be identified, ZEC's shielded transactions offer true fungibility—a fundamental property of money. Looking at the valuation space, optimists also point out that ZEC's market cap is still extremely low compared to Bitcoin, indicating a significant revaluation potential. If ZEC is indeed accepted by the market as a store of value asset, even capturing just 5-10% of Bitcoin's market share would imply a multiple-fold increase. Historically, the value ratio of silver to gold has fluctuated between 1:50 and 1:80 for a long time, and if measured by the same logic, ZEC has a significant valuation gap to bridge relative to Bitcoin. However, the pessimists offer a completely different perspective. They argue that if ZEC's value truly lies in "currency/store of value," then the true challenger to Bitcoin would be Ethereum, not ZEC. Ethereum not only has smart contracts, a massive DeFi ecosystem, and institutional recognition, but more importantly, it has effectively taken on the role of "programmable money"—with billions of dollars in stablecoins circulating on Ethereum and hundreds of billions of dollars in value locked in Ethereum's DeFi protocols. In comparison, while ZEC has privacy and a fixed supply, it lacks ecosystem depth and use cases, making it more like a "single-function tool" rather than an "all-encompassing currency." Within this framework, the pessimists are more bullish on projects like Railgun. RAIL enhances Ethereum's privacy, effectively improving ETH's monetary properties. This means that RAIL is not only a benefactor of the privacy narrative but also of Ethereum's monetary narrative—it stands on top of a larger, more mature ecosystem, rather than attempting to build a new monetary system from scratch. From a valuation perspective, there is a significant difference in the upside potential of the two. If RAIL were to rise 20x, its fully diluted valuation (FDV) would reach $4 billion, which is in line with the valuations of other top projects in the Ethereum ecosystem and easily comprehensible and acceptable to the market. However, if ZEC were to increase by 20x, its FDV would reach $160 billion, becoming the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, only behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. This would require the market to truly believe that ZEC can stand shoulder to shoulder with Bitcoin and Ethereum—a very high threshold. This is not an issue that can be resolved through theoretical debate; rather, it requires the market to answer through actual action: Will the shielded pool balance of ZEC continue to grow in the next 12-24 months? Will institutions allocate ZEC through compliant channels such as Grayscale? Will regulatory pressure crush ZEC or instead strengthen its scarcity? The answers to these questions will determine whether ZEC's "Bitcoin Silver" narrative can be established and will also determine the sustainability and depth of this round of privacy coin market. **Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:** Telegram Subscription Group: [https://t.me/theblockbeats](https://t.me/theblockbeats) Telegram Discussion Group: [https://t.me/BlockBeats\_App](https://t.me/BlockBeats_App) Official Twitter Account: [https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia](https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia) [#ZEC](https://m.theblockbeats.info/search?msg=ZEC) [#破折号](https://m.theblockbeats.info/search?msg=%E7%A0%B4%E6%8A%98%E5%8F%B7) Correction/Report [Industry Insights\ \ See the essence from the phenomenon, seek the encrypted truth](https://m.theblockbeats.info/topic/143) 24H Hot Articles [DeFi's Potential $8 Billion Thunderclap, Only $1 Billion Exploded So Far](https://m.theblockbeats.info/news/60117) [Glassnode: The $100K Defense Battle resumes - Will Bitcoin Rebound or Continue to Dip?](https://m.theblockbeats.info/news/60112) [3-Month 20x Surge: Does ZEC's 'Bitcoin Silver' Narrative Hold Up?](https://m.theblockbeats.info/news/60126) [Claude Claims Victory in 6-Way AI Grid Strategy Showdown \| OKX & AiCoin Live Trading Review](https://m.theblockbeats.info/news/60115) Download BlockBeats [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/cn/app/%E5%8C%BA%E5%9D%97%E5%BE%8B%E5%8A%A8/id1482096104?from=singlemessage) [Android](http://download.theblockbeats.info/akys) Scan with WeChat Choose Library Add Library Cancel Finish Add Library Visible to myself only Public Save Correction/Report Submit
Connect with us Generic selectors Exact matches only Search in title Search in content Post Type Selectors Active Currencies 19422 Market Cap $3,491,997,452,803.00 Bitcoin Share 58.23% 24h Market Cap Change $-1.55 [Ethereum](https://ambcrypto.com/category/ethereum-news/) # Can Ethereum flip Q4 momentum against Bitcoin? KEY signals say… 2min Read Ethereum in focus: Bullish triggers stack up against Bitcoin? Posted: November 7, 2025 By: [Ritika Gupta](https://ambcrypto.com/author/ritika-gupta/) Journalist Edited By: [Jacob Thomas](https://ambcrypto.com/author/jacob-thomas/) [Ritika Gupta](https://ambcrypto.com/author/ritika-gupta/) Journalist Edited By: [Jacob Thomas](https://ambcrypto.com/author/jacob-thomas/) Posted: November 7, 2025 Share this article - [Share](https://ambcrypto.com/ambcrypto.com) - [Tweet](https://ambcrypto.com/ambcrypto.com) ## **Key Takeaways** ### _Is Ethereum still struggling against Bitcoin?_ Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin in Q4, down 18% vs BTC’s 9.41%, and the ETH/BTC ratio slipped 7%, highlighting weaker capital flow. ### _Are there any bullish signs for ETH?_ Whales scooping ETH, BTC.D hitting resistance, and deeper derivatives cleanse all point to ETH setting the stage for a potential Q4 momentum flip. [Ethereum \[ETH\]](https://ambcrypto.com/predictions/ethereum-price-prediction) is struggling against [Bitcoin \[BTC\]](https://ambcrypto.com/predictions/bitcoin-price-prediction). Over the past two weeks, ETH’s moves have been twice as harsh as BTC’s. Looking at Q4, the [divergence](https://www.coinglass.com/today) is clear: Bitcoin has cut losses to 9.41%, while Ethereum is down 18%. The ETH/BTC ratio also slid 7% this week, breaking below its sideways range around 0.36 that held through October. Put simply, capital flow into Ethereum is weaker, with investors still favoring BTC over ETH right now. Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC) On the bullish side, though, this breakdown has shifted directional bias. Simply put, ETH/BTC ratio breaking 0.36 triggered a fresh sell-off in ETH vs BTC, setting the stage for renewed trend clarity in the pair. Meanwhile, [BTC dominance](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/) hitting resistance at 61% is reinforcing flows back into altcoins. In this context, Ethereum dipping toward $3k acts as a bullish layer. If bulls step in, it sets the stage for capital rotation into select altcoins, while BTC looks riskier. Notably, it seems ETH traders are already playing this out. ## **Ethereum gains traction as bullish catalysts align** A mix of bullish triggers shows Ethereum might be catching up. To begin with, ETH’s drop to a multi-month low of $3k on the 4th of November synced with [whales scooping](https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1986260912412762520) 394,682 ETH for $1.37 billion, putting their cost basis around $3,488 per coin. That said, the biggest catalyst is in derivatives. Since the mid-October crash, Ethereum Open Interest has dropped $30 billion, compared with BTC’s $24 billion, signaling a deeper leverage shakeout for ETH. Source: Coinglass In short, Ethereum’s Q4 tailwind vs BTC hasn’t flipped bearish yet. With whales scooping the dip, ETH/BTC hitting a floor, BTC.D at resistance, and ETH’s clean flush out, we’re seeing a stack of early bullish signs, pointing to [Ethereum in an accumulation phase](https://ambcrypto.com/ethereum-whales-pour-80-mln-into-accumulation-start-of-a-bullish-turn/). If this holds, ETH could still flip its Q4 momentum, breaking the streak of lower quarterly gains vs BTC, with $3k acting as a solid rebound zone, potentially setting the stage for a bounce in Ethereum vs. Bitcoin. Next: [Solana ETFs pull $9.7M in 24 hours – Can SOL eye $200 next?](https://ambcrypto.com/solana-etfs-pull-9-7m-in-24-hours-can-sol-eye-200-next/) Share - [Share](https://ambcrypto.com/ambcrypto.com) - [Tweet](https://ambcrypto.com/ambcrypto.com) [Ritika Gupta](https://ambcrypto.com/author/ritika-gupta/) Ritika Gupta is a Financial Journalist and Geopolitical Analyst at AMBCrypto, specializing in the critical intersection of world politics, economic policy, and the cryptocurrency markets. Her analysis is informed by her distinguished background, which includes professional experience at major news network. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and Psychology from Gargi College, University of Delhi. This academic training provides her with a sophisticated framework for dissecting complex issues such as international regulations, government fiscal policies, and the geopolitical forces that directly influence asset valuations. At AMBCrypto, Ritika applies this expert lens to synthesize macroeconomic data and political developments, offering readers a deeper context for market movements. She excels at explaining not just what is happening in the market, but why it is happening. Her work is dedicated to providing strategic insights that empower readers to understand the complex relationship between global events and their digital assets. Read the best crypto stories of the day in less than 5 minutes Subscribe to get it daily in your inbox. Please check the format of your first name and/or email address. Thank you for subscribing to Unhashed. More Articles - [Solana](https://ambcrypto.com/category/solana-news/) [Solana ETFs pull $9.7M in 24 hours – Can SOL eye $200 next?](https://ambcrypto.com/solana-etfs-pull-9-7m-in-24-hours-can-sol-eye-200-next/) By [Kelvin Murithi](https://ambcrypto.com/author/kelvin-murithi/)1 hour ago - [Altcoin](https://ambcrypto.com/category/altcoins-news/) [$5M bet lifts 1INCH 29% – Will bulls hold the $0.20 line?](https://ambcrypto.com/5m-bet-lifts-1inch-29-will-bulls-hold-the-0-20-line/) By [Lennox Gitonga](https://ambcrypto.com/author/lennox-gitonga/)2 hours ago - [Google News](https://ambcrypto.com/category/google-news/) [Donald Trump: ‘We’re making the U.S. a Bitcoin superpower’](https://ambcrypto.com/donald-trump-were-making-the-u-s-a-bitcoin-superpower/) By [Ishika Kumari](https://ambcrypto.com/author/ishika-kumari/)2 hours ago - [ChainLink](https://ambcrypto.com/category/chainlink-news/) [Chainlink social buzz surges – But LINK’s price tells another story!](https://ambcrypto.com/chainlink-social-buzz-surges-but-links-price-tells-another-story/) By [Akashnath S](https://ambcrypto.com/author/akashnath-sumukar/)3 hours ago - [Bitcoin](https://ambcrypto.com/category/bitcoin-news/) [Crypto Fear & Greed Index lifts from ‘extreme fear’ – Is Bitcoin ready to rebound?](https://ambcrypto.com/crypto-fear-greed-index-lifts-from-extreme-fear-is-bitcoin-ready-to-rebound/) By [Benjamin Njiri](https://ambcrypto.com/author/benjamin-njiri/)4 hours ago - [Bitcoin](https://ambcrypto.com/category/bitcoin-news/) [$500M exits crypto markets this week – Is a new bear cycle starting?](https://ambcrypto.com/500m-exits-crypto-markets-this-week-is-a-new-bear-cycle-starting/) By [Ritika Gupta](https://ambcrypto.com/author/ritika-gupta/)5 hours ago
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[KHYPE](https://decrypt.co/price/kinetic-staked-hype) $40.34 -2.40% ### [PUMP](https://decrypt.co/price/pump-fun) $0.00391594 -0.51% ### [GT](https://decrypt.co/price/gatechain-token) $11.70 4.38% ### [PAXG](https://decrypt.co/price/pax-gold) $4,012.00 1.33% ### [BFUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/bfusd) $0.999783 -0.03% ### [SYRUPUSDT](https://decrypt.co/price/syrupusdt) $1.10 0.03% ### [USDC](https://decrypt.co/price/binance-bridged-usdc-bnb-smart-chain) $0.999748 -0.02% ### [OSETH](https://decrypt.co/price/stakewise-v3-oseth) $3,577.31 2.63% ### [RSETH](https://decrypt.co/price/kelp-dao-restaked-eth) $3,589.58 2.85% ### [VET](https://decrypt.co/price/vechain) $0.01479776 2.33% ### [HASH](https://decrypt.co/price/provenance-blockchain) $0.02476392 4.36% ### [WBNB](https://decrypt.co/price/wbnb) $955.14 0.99% ### [FBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/ignition-fbtc) $103,158.00 0.38% ### [LBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/lombard-staked-btc) $103,905.00 1.92% ### [KAS](https://decrypt.co/price/kaspa) $0.04619528 2.30% ### [ATOM](https://decrypt.co/price/cosmos) $2.59 -0.36% ### [QNT](https://decrypt.co/price/quant-network) $84.65 11.17% ### [LSETH](https://decrypt.co/price/liquid-staked-ethereum) $3,658.78 2.60% ### [SYRUPUSDC](https://decrypt.co/price/syrupusdc) $1.13 0.02% ### [SKY](https://decrypt.co/price/sky) $0.051145 -0.40% ### [FLR](https://decrypt.co/price/flare-networks) $0.01481451 6.42% ### [JUP](https://decrypt.co/price/jupiter-exchange-solana) $0.346207 -0.14% ### [IP](https://decrypt.co/price/story-2) $3.40 -8.27% ### [NEXO](https://decrypt.co/price/nexo) $1.058 3.00% ### [EZETH](https://decrypt.co/price/renzo-restaked-eth) $3,614.00 2.50% ### [SOLVBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/solv-btc) $102,940.00 1.32% ### [USDG](https://decrypt.co/price/global-dollar) $0.999943 -0.01% ### [RLUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/ripple-usd) $0.999685 -0.06% ### [SEI](https://decrypt.co/price/sei-network) $0.161962 0.11% ### [RENDER](https://decrypt.co/price/render-network) $1.94 3.25% ### [USYC](https://decrypt.co/price/hashnote-usyc) $1.11 0.02% ### [BONK](https://decrypt.co/price/bonk) $0.00001205 1.06% ### [FDUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/first-digital-usd) $0.996752 -0.06% ### [XDC](https://decrypt.co/price/xdce-crowd-sale) $0.05443 7.12% ### [FIL](https://decrypt.co/price/filecoin) $1.35 -1.51% ### [PENGU](https://decrypt.co/price/pengu) $0.01499017 1.12% ### [USTB](https://decrypt.co/price/superstate-short-duration-us-government-securities-fund-ustb) $10.88 0.01% ### [MORPHO](https://decrypt.co/price/morpho) $1.68 4.01% ### [FTN](https://decrypt.co/price/fasttoken) $2.02 0.11% ### [METH](https://decrypt.co/price/mantle-staked-ether) $3,666.06 2.39% ### [VIRTUAL](https://decrypt.co/price/virtual-protocol) $1.28 -1.12% ### [WBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/arbitrum-bridged-wbtc-arbitrum-one) $103,190.00 1.26% ### [IMX](https://decrypt.co/price/immutable-x) $0.410137 -1.81% ### [CLBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/clbtc) $103,319.00 1.23% ### [AERO](https://decrypt.co/price/aerodrome-finance) $0.879804 8.28% ### [OUSG](https://decrypt.co/price/ousg) $113.19 0.01% ### [CAKE](https://decrypt.co/price/pancakeswap) $2.26 1.01% ### [JUPSOL](https://decrypt.co/price/jupiter-staked-sol) $182.72 1.43% ### [DCR](https://decrypt.co/price/decred) $41.54 13.59% ### [USDY](https://decrypt.co/price/ondo-us-dollar-yield) $1.10 -0.10% ### [OP](https://decrypt.co/price/optimism) $0.361958 1.40% ### [USDX](https://decrypt.co/price/usdx-money-usdx) $0.998416 -0.11% ### [LDO](https://decrypt.co/price/lido-dao-token) $0.75421 1.85% ### [TIA](https://decrypt.co/price/celestia) $0.8034 0.36% ### [CGETH.HASHKEY](https://decrypt.co/price/cgeth-hashkey-cloud) $3,236.14 1.18% ### [STX](https://decrypt.co/price/blockstack) $0.355559 0.14% ### [SPX](https://decrypt.co/price/spx6900) $0.672438 2.66% ### [BDX](https://decrypt.co/price/beldex) $0.083728 2.60% ### [INJ](https://decrypt.co/price/injective) $6.34 -4.65% ### [TBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/tbtc) $102,762.00 0.94% ### [CRV](https://decrypt.co/price/curve-dao-token) $0.421869 -0.69% ### [LIQUIDETH](https://decrypt.co/price/ether-fi-liquid-eth) $3,616.86 2.62% ### [MSOL](https://decrypt.co/price/msol) $212.26 1.07% ### [WETH](https://decrypt.co/price/l2-standard-bridged-weth-base) $3,400.81 2.46% ### [GRT](https://decrypt.co/price/the-graph) $0.055238 -0.88% ### [USDAI](https://decrypt.co/price/usdai) $1.004 -0.09% ### [USDC.E](https://decrypt.co/price/bridged-usdc-polygon-pos-bridge) $0.9998 -0.01% ### [DAI](https://decrypt.co/price/polygon-pos-bridged-dai-polygon-pos) $0.999835 -0.02% ### [2Z](https://decrypt.co/price/doublezero) $0.164492 4.76% ### [XTZ](https://decrypt.co/price/tezos) $0.534696 1.34% ### [FLOKI](https://decrypt.co/price/floki) $0.00005856 0.24% ### [FET](https://decrypt.co/price/fetch-ai) $0.214933 0.48% ### [WETH](https://decrypt.co/price/arbitrum-bridged-weth-arbitrum-one) $3,400.99 2.47% ### [USD0](https://decrypt.co/price/usual-usd) $0.998588 -0.05% ### [KAIA](https://decrypt.co/price/kaia) $0.09041 4.84% ### [PYTH](https://decrypt.co/price/pyth-network) $0.092192 -0.54% ### [IOTA](https://decrypt.co/price/iota) $0.128049 1.45% ### [ETHX](https://decrypt.co/price/stader-ethx) $3,651.90 2.49% ### [GTETH](https://decrypt.co/price/gteth) $3,401.63 2.58% ### [SN115](https://decrypt.co/price/cognify) $1,762.47 0.00% ### [USDT](https://decrypt.co/price/mantle-bridged-usdt-mantle) $1.003 -0.16% ### [XPL](https://decrypt.co/price/plasma) $0.268713 -5.54% ### [TWT](https://decrypt.co/price/trust-wallet-token) $1.21 4.81% ### [ZK](https://decrypt.co/price/zksync) $0.068108 7.65% ### [TUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/true-usd) $0.995515 -0.33% ### [BTC.B](https://decrypt.co/price/bitcoin-avalanche-bridged-btc-b) $103,130.00 1.31% ### [ETHFI](https://decrypt.co/price/ether-fi) $0.855055 -0.87% ### [STRK](https://decrypt.co/price/starknet) $0.105145 2.02% ### [ENS](https://decrypt.co/price/ethereum-name-service) $12.72 -0.10% ### [SYRUP](https://decrypt.co/price/syrup) $0.413421 12.35% ### [S](https://decrypt.co/price/sonic-3) $0.123363 1.68% ### [CBETH](https://decrypt.co/price/coinbase-wrapped-staked-eth) $3,744.43 2.64% ### [CFX](https://decrypt.co/price/conflux-token) $0.089336 -1.50% ### [STEAKUSDC](https://decrypt.co/price/steakhouse-usdc-morpho-vault) $1.11 -0.01% ### [AB](https://decrypt.co/price/newton-project) $0.00530626 -2.15% ### [EETH](https://decrypt.co/price/ether-fi-staked-eth) $3,392.51 2.84% ### [SWETH](https://decrypt.co/price/sweth) $3,727.80 2.22% ### [HNT](https://decrypt.co/price/helium) $2.41 10.39% ### [PENDLE](https://decrypt.co/price/pendle) $2.67 1.19% ### [SBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/sbtc-2) $102,299.00 -0.36% ### [SAND](https://decrypt.co/price/the-sandbox) $0.180761 0.83% ### [BSV](https://decrypt.co/price/bitcoin-sv) $22.10 2.87% ### [JASMY](https://decrypt.co/price/jasmycoin) $0.00900216 3.58% ### [GHO](https://decrypt.co/price/gho) $0.999226 -0.01% ### [BTT](https://decrypt.co/price/bittorrent) $0.00000043 1.92% ### [WIF](https://decrypt.co/price/dogwifcoin) $0.427324 2.26% ### [ARK](https://decrypt.co/price/ark-3) $40.05 0.38% ### [SUN](https://decrypt.co/price/sun-token) $0.0220744 3.38% ### [USDD](https://decrypt.co/price/usdd) $0.999209 -0.08% ### [DOGE](https://decrypt.co/price/binance-peg-dogecoin) $0.162903 -0.41% ### [SOON](https://decrypt.co/price/soon-2) $1.49 104.91% ### [THETA](https://decrypt.co/price/theta-network) $0.415402 0.09% ### [GALA](https://decrypt.co/price/gala) $0.00879431 0.03% ### [USDB](https://decrypt.co/price/usdb) $0.999358 0.87% ### [MANA](https://decrypt.co/price/decentraland) $0.209687 2.67% ### [A](https://decrypt.co/price/vaulta) $0.250358 0.70% ### [WHYPE](https://decrypt.co/price/wrapped-hype) $40.15 -1.78% ### [NFT](https://decrypt.co/price/apenft) $0.00000039 -0.94% ### [EUTBL](https://decrypt.co/price/eutbl) $1.20 0.28% ### [MYX](https://decrypt.co/price/myx-finance) $2.02 1.53% ### [FLOW](https://decrypt.co/price/flow) $0.237387 0.56% ### [WEETH](https://decrypt.co/price/arbitrum-bridged-wrapped-eeth) $3,644.84 1.98% ### [SAVAX](https://decrypt.co/price/benqi-liquid-staked-avax) $20.04 -1.73% ### [SENA](https://decrypt.co/price/ethena-staked-ena) $0.322296 2.71% ### [SDAI](https://decrypt.co/price/savings-dai) $1.17 -0.03% ### [WETH](https://decrypt.co/price/polygon-pos-bridged-weth-polygon-pos) $3,402.63 2.61% ### [CMETH](https://decrypt.co/price/mantle-restaked-eth) $3,662.83 2.42% ### [ASBNB](https://decrypt.co/price/astherus-staked-bnb) $1,009.23 1.07% ### [RAY](https://decrypt.co/price/raydium) $1.34 0.52% ### [ZEN](https://decrypt.co/price/horizen) $20.16 7.64% ### [JST](https://decrypt.co/price/just) $0.03556111 3.28% ### [OHM](https://decrypt.co/price/olympusdao) $21.22 1.38% ### [FRXETH](https://decrypt.co/price/frax-ether) $3,351.71 2.38% ### [ATH](https://decrypt.co/price/aethir) $0.02411348 0.77% ### [NEO](https://decrypt.co/price/neo) $4.84 -0.33% ### [BORG](https://decrypt.co/price/swissborg) $0.347628 9.69% ### [DEXE](https://decrypt.co/price/dexe) $5.96 -0.69% ### [UBTC](https://decrypt.co/price/unit-bitcoin) $103,218.00 1.22% ### [VKHYPE](https://decrypt.co/price/kinetiq-earn-vault) $40.74 -1.52% ### [MERL](https://decrypt.co/price/merlin-chain) $0.314798 3.35% ### [VSN](https://decrypt.co/price/vision-3) $0.09832 0.76% ### [CCD](https://decrypt.co/price/concordium) $0.02814536 -0.08% ### [WAL](https://decrypt.co/price/walrus-2) $0.217376 -0.57% ### [APE](https://decrypt.co/price/apecoin) $0.361653 -0.19% ### [EIGEN](https://decrypt.co/price/eigenlayer) $0.743502 -2.33% ### [TEL](https://decrypt.co/price/telcoin) $0.00337922 9.46% ### [BAT](https://decrypt.co/price/basic-attention-token) $0.212739 10.44% ### [AIA](https://decrypt.co/price/aia) $3.31 67.10% ### [BUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/binance-peg-busd) $0.9989 -0.37% ### [ETH+](https://decrypt.co/price/reserve-protocol-eth-plus) $3,589.27 2.47% ### [GNO](https://decrypt.co/price/gnosis) $117.38 2.66% ### [COMP](https://decrypt.co/price/compound-comp-token) $31.91 1.19% ### [ZBCN](https://decrypt.co/price/zebec-network) $0.00322882 2.22% ### [TIBBIR](https://decrypt.co/price/ribbita-by-virtuals) $0.304722 2.38% ### [JTO](https://decrypt.co/price/jito-governance-token) $0.764178 -1.33% ### [TRAC](https://decrypt.co/price/origintrail) $0.604742 14.79% ### [TETH](https://decrypt.co/price/treehouse-eth) $4,145.90 2.75% ### [SATUSD](https://decrypt.co/price/satoshi-stablecoin) $0.99912 0.21% ### [CHZ](https://decrypt.co/price/chiliz) $0.02919311 2.64% ### [APEPE](https://decrypt.co/price/ape-and-pepe) $0.0000014 4.89% ### [FRAX](https://decrypt.co/price/frax) $0.995238 -0.04% ### [WAVAX](https://decrypt.co/price/wrapped-avax) $16.29 -1.47% ### [FLUID](https://decrypt.co/price/instadapp) $3.70 3.10% ### [SNX](https://decrypt.co/price/synthetix-network-token) $0.831129 -2.64% ### [AR](https://decrypt.co/price/arweave) $4.32 2.04% ### [W](https://decrypt.co/price/wormhole) $0.057622 2.01% ### [BBSOL](https://decrypt.co/price/bybit-staked-sol) $177.37 1.17% ### [WETH](https://decrypt.co/price/wrapped-ether-mantle-bridge) $3,404.16 2.89% ### [EURC](https://decrypt.co/price/euro-coin) $1.15 0.22% ### [USX](https://decrypt.co/price/usx) $1.00 -0.01% ### [DSOL](https://decrypt.co/price/drift-staked-sol) $183.60 1.57% [Price data by](https://www.coingecko.com?utm_source=decrypt-web&utm_medium=partnership&utm_campaign=coin_price_marquee_widget) Reading #### In brief - Fundstrat’s Tom Lee attributes Bitcoin's decline to macro headwinds, such as the government shutdown and a hawkish Fed. - He states that the October 10th deleveraging was the largest in crypto history, creating ongoing ripple effects. - Lee argued that Lee broader financial market indicators are signaling a positive outlook. #### Decrypt’s Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. [Discover SCENE](https://decrypt.co/scene) Bitcoin's recent break below a key technical level was driven by a cascade of macroeconomic headwinds. Still, these pressures could soon reverse and fuel a rebound, according to popular market analyst Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. The top cryptocurrency recently broke below its 200-day moving average, a technical indicator watched closely by traders. BTC -5.12%$102,786.73 24H7D1M1YMAX Created with Highcharts 10.3.312:00PMOct 3112:00PMNov 112:00PMNov 212:00PMNov 312:00PMNov 412:00PMNov 512:00PMNov 612:…$97500$100000$102500$105000$107500$110000$112500 [Price data by](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin?utm_source=decrypt-web&utm_medium=partnership&utm_campaign=coin_price_chart_widget) [BTC price](https://decrypt.co/price/bitcoin) The move lower coincided with a period of significant deleveraging within the crypto market, including the major event on October 10th. “Bitcoin is very sensitive to market liquidity and also perceptions about risk appetite,” Lee [told](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZfBq_gc1Vk) _CNBC_. “Over the past couple of weeks, I think there have been headwinds building right from the government shutdown to a hawkish Fed cut.” Lee pointed to the U.S. government shutdown and related Treasury dynamics as key factors that put pressure on risk assets like crypto. This aligns with analysis from other experts who have recently [pointed](https://decrypt.co/347358/crypto-stocks-fall-traders-pivot-how-low-can-bitcoin-go) to U.S. dollar strength as a significant macro headwind for cryptocurrencies. ## “Headwinds become tailwinds” Despite the recent selloff, Lee struck an optimistic note for the future, suggesting that “headwinds become tailwinds when you can resolve these things.” The analyst tempered his views, comparing the current market cleanup to past deleveraging events. “The October 10th deleveraging was the biggest in history, and that means there are still ripple effects being felt even two weeks later,” Lee said. “It's going to take some time for confidence to come back.” ## [Bitcoin’s Relief Rally Lifts Spirits: Is it Time to Buy the Dip?](https://decrypt.co/347539/bitcoins-relief-rally-lifts-spirits-time-buy-dip) The crypto market is showing tentative signs of a recovery following a bruising sell-off, leaving traders grappling with a critical question. The upward swing saw Bitcoin bounce from Wednesday’s intraday low of $99,600 to trade around $103,400, according to CoinGecko data. But is it the start of a sustainable rebound or a temporary respite before further declines? “Liquidity behind Bitcoin is starting to make a recovery,” on-chain analyst Willy Woo wrote in a tweet on Wednesday, suggesting th... Despite the recent technical weakness, Lee highlighted that broader financial market indicators are signaling a positive outlook. He noted that after stocks are up for six consecutive months, history suggests a flat or positive November, which would support a constructive environment for crypto. This potential for a rebound is supported by prediction markets, where retail sentiment remains bullish. [iframe](https://myriad.markets/embed/market/bitcoin-s-next-move-pump-to-115k-or-dump-to-85k-a937b1c0-8943-480e-8ff4-3e6f811da49b) On Myriad, launched by _Decrypt’s_ parent company Dastan, users put a [64% chance](https://myriad.markets/markets/bitcoin-s-next-move-pump-to-115k-or-dump-to-85k-a937b1c0-8943-480e-8ff4-3e6f811da49b) on [Bitcoin](https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-bitcoin-four-minute-instant-guide-explainer) revisiting $115,000 before it falls to $85,000. The confidence extends to [Ethereum](https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-ethereum-quickly-explained-four-minute-guide), with users [assigning](https://myriad.markets/markets/ethereum-next-move-pump-to-4k-or-dump-to-2-5k) a 63% chance that it will hit $4,500 before dropping to $2,500. Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 1.3% and 2.6% over the past 24 hours, trading at $103,214 and $3,403, respectively, according to [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/). ### Daily Debrief Newsletter Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. Your Email Get it! Get it! [View on Walrus](https://decryptmedia.wal.app/347558-bitcoin-could-bounce-headwinds-can-turn-into-tailwinds-tom-lee.html) ### Recommended News - ## [Bitcoin’s Relief Rally Lifts Spirits: Is it Time to Buy the Dip?](https://decrypt.co/347539/bitcoins-relief-rally-lifts-spirits-time-buy-dip) The crypto market is showing tentative signs of a recovery following a bruising sell-off, leaving traders grappling with a critical question. The upward swing saw Bitcoin bounce from Wednesday’s intraday low of $99,600 to trade around $103,400, according to CoinGecko data. But is it the start of a sustainable rebound or a temporary respite before further declines? “Liquidity behind Bitcoin is starting to make a recovery,” on-chain analyst Willy Woo wrote in a tweet on Wednesday, suggesting th... - ## [You Could’ve Made a 100x Prediction Market Bet on Last Night’s Elections](https://decrypt.co/347528/you-made-100x-prediction-market-same-day-bet-elections) Though last night’s U.S. election results proved surprising to many political pundits—given the extent and scale of Democrats’ victories across the country—prediction markets proclaimed they’d known the outcome for months. Indeed, prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi correctly called the New York City mayor’s race, plus governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia, by overwhelming margins. Further, those margins had been established for months in all three races—leaving relativel... - ## [Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Shed $2.6 Billion in Assets Over the Past Week](https://decrypt.co/347479/bitcoin-ethereum-etfs-shed-2-6-billion-assets-past-week) Investors have cashed out a combined $2.6 billion from U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds over the past week, marking one of the largest redemption periods in the funds' history. The more than $1.9 billion that left the Bitcoin funds and $718.9 million pulled out of their Ethereum counterparts since October 29, according to data from Farside Investors, has helped put downwards pressure on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market value. On Tuesday, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000...
Liquidity is getting squeezed while privacy coins are the only thing pumping - classic risk-off with selective degen pockets.
Bitcoin long-term holders just unloaded 405k BTC while BlackRock dumped $2.35B in a single day - that's nearly 2% of supply hitting the market right as BTC sits below its 200-day MA. Meanwhile ETH is down 35% this month despite L2s absolutely exploding - Arbitrum and Base hit 3,872 TPS (20x YoY) with $140B in stablecoin volume. The decoupling is brutal: usage up, price down.
Three storylines are fighting for oxygen:
The only green on my screen is privacy alts - ZEC, DASH, DCR all double-digit gains while everything else bleeds. Good catalyst? Grayscale reopened their ZEC trust with AUM up 228%. Bad catalyst? ETF outflows hit $2.6B across BTC/ETH products this week, plus Balancer just got hacked for $128M.
Bottom line: We're in that classic crypto purgatory where institutions are dumping spot but degens are rotating into narrative plays. If Treasury spending resumes post-shutdown, liquidity could flip fast - until then, privacy coins and AI-mining plays are the only games in town.
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